Begin with the end point as a demonstration: the gated read this research evaluates, applied retrospectively to saved cases. Then rewind to how the medical VLM emerged, see the paraphrase failure itself, read one case layer by layer, check where the answer commits across 1,396 pairs, and try the signal the gate reads. The evidence-driven exhibits recompute from saved evaluation rows in your browser.
These demos replay saved offline evaluation on a research dataset. They are not a clinical tool and nothing here is medical advice.
1. The gate this research suggests
Before the failure, the end point. This exhibit applies a retrospective admission rule to ten selected PadChest cases from the 861-question bank: a prediction is admitted only when every phrasing agrees, the answer margin clears the bank median, and predictive entropy stays low; anything else would go to a radiologist. Six cases are admitted, four are held back. The cases illustrate the rule's behavior and do not establish clinical readiness. The radiographs shown are openly licensed illustrative images matched to each finding, not the PadChest case films: the research-use agreement prohibits publishing those without written permission. The clinician view keeps the arithmetic off the screen; the case files keep all of it.
A five-era visual primer connects task prompting, contrastive vision-language learning, medical question answering, instruction-tuned multimodality, and the medical VLM studied in this dissertation. Use the timeline, arrow keys, or space bar to move through it.
Eight curated cases show the failure the later signals are meant to catch: questions that mean the same thing get contradictory answers. Within a case the image never changes; only the wording does.
GPT-5-mini and Claude Haiku 4.5 and claude-opus-5 and muse-glimmer-30b and gpt-5.6 appear as general-purpose reference models for contrast; the dissertation's benchmark covers six medical vision-language models. Each verdict chip compares a model's answers with the reference read: whether the original answer was right, and whether any rewording changed it. In practice, a flipped presence answer is the difference between a finding flagged for review and one missed.
Case 01 · Curated demonstration set (MIMIC-CXR)
Pneumothorax
3 flipped answers3 of 7 models flip
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there evidence of pneumothorax in this image?
Reference answer
No
Why this case mattersThe image shows no pneumothorax, yet a single more specific rewording about pleural air pushes all three original models into the same false positive. The frontier arms added in August 2026 do not flip here: GPT-5.6 Sol, Muse-Glimmer-30B, and reasoning-off Claude Opus 5 stay correct on every wording, while reasoning-on Claude Opus 5 is stable but wrong throughout. Kimi K3 is excluded from this case because its responses overran the token budget mid-reasoning and were unreadable.
Why these questions count as equivalentEach paraphrase keeps the same clinical operator (presence of a finding) and the same finding (pneumothorax), varying only syntax, scope wording, specificity, or synonyms, which is the class of rewrite the equivalence audit rubric treats as clinically equivalent.
MedGemma-4B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: No
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5-mini
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: No
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Haiku 4.5
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: No
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5 (reasoning on)
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: Yes
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5 (reasoning off)
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: No
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: No
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Muse-Glimmer-30B
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: No
Does this image demonstrate a pneumothorax?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of pneumothorax, unilateral or bilateral, on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there radiographic evidence of pleural air consistent with pneumothorax in this chest radiograph?
Specificity modulationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there air in the pleural space suggesting pneumothorax on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there scarring in the lung apices?
Reference answer
Yes
Why this case mattersOn one image the three models disagree with each other and with themselves: one recovers the correct answer only after a rewording, and another changes on every rewording.
Why these questions count as equivalentEach paraphrase keeps the presence-of-finding operator and the same finding in the same anatomical region (apical scarring, with fibrosis as an accepted synonym), varying only syntax, scope wording, or lexical choice. The equivalence audit rubric treats these rewrite classes as clinically equivalent.
MedGemma-4B
Wrong and unstable
Answer to the original question: No
Is there fibrosis in the apical regions of the lungs?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Can scarring be seen in the apices of the lungs?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any scarring in the apices of either lung?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Do the lung apices show evidence of scarring?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5-mini
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there fibrosis in the apical regions of the lungs?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Can scarring be seen in the apices of the lungs?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any scarring in the apices of either lung?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Do the lung apices show evidence of scarring?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Haiku 4.5
Wrong and unstable
Answer to the original question: No
Is there fibrosis in the apical regions of the lungs?
Lexical substitutionYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
Can scarring be seen in the apices of the lungs?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any scarring in the apices of either lung?
Scope quantificationYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
Do the lung apices show evidence of scarring?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there evidence of atelectasis in this image?
Reference answer
Yes
Why this case mattersSubstituting the synonym pulmonary collapse for atelectasis changes the answer for two of the three original models in this illustration, even though the question asks the same clinical thing. Among the August 2026 frontier arms, reasoning-on Claude Opus 5 and Muse-Glimmer-30B also flip after starting correct, GPT-5.6 Sol stays consistent and correct on every wording, reasoning-off Claude Opus 5 never flips but is wrong on every wording, and Kimi K3's original answer was truncated mid-reasoning so its flips cannot be computed.
Why these questions count as equivalentEach paraphrase keeps the presence-of-finding operator and the same finding (atelectasis, with pulmonary collapse as an accepted synonym), varying only syntax, scope wording, specificity, or lexical choice. The equivalence audit rubric treats these rewrite classes as clinically equivalent.
MedGemma-4B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5-mini
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Haiku 4.5
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5 (reasoning on)
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5 (reasoning off)
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: No
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Kimi K3
Original answer not recorded
Answer to the original question: not recorded
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Muse-Glimmer-30B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there evidence of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does this image show evidence of atelectasis?
Syntactic restructuringNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any atelectasis visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of atelectasis in the lungs on this image?
Specificity modulationNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Are there radiographic signs of pulmonary collapse on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there hyperinflation in the lungs?
Reference answer
Yes
Why this case mattersOne model never changes its answer yet is wrong every time: a low flip rate on its own is not evidence of image-grounded reasoning.
Why these questions count as equivalentEach paraphrase keeps the presence-of-finding operator and the same finding (hyperinflation, with hyperexpansion and overinflation as accepted synonyms), varying only syntax, scope wording, specificity, or lexical choice. The equivalence audit rubric treats these rewrite classes as clinically equivalent.
MedGemma-4B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there pulmonary hyperexpansion in the lung fields?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the imaging show hyperinflation of the lungs?
Syntactic restructuringNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any hyperinflation in either lung?
Scope quantificationNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there hyperinflation in the pulmonary parenchyma?
Specificity modulationNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there overinflation of the lungs?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5-mini
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: No
Is there pulmonary hyperexpansion in the lung fields?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does the imaging show hyperinflation of the lungs?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any hyperinflation in either lung?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there hyperinflation in the pulmonary parenchyma?
Specificity modulationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there overinflation of the lungs?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Haiku 4.5
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there pulmonary hyperexpansion in the lung fields?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the imaging show hyperinflation of the lungs?
Syntactic restructuringNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any hyperinflation in either lung?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there hyperinflation in the pulmonary parenchyma?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there overinflation of the lungs?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there evidence of tortuosity of the thoracic aorta in this image?
Reference answer
No
Why this case mattersThe three original models fail in three different ways on one image: repeated false positives after rewording, stable but wrong throughout, and a single late flip. The August 2026 frontier arms add every pattern again: GPT-5.6 Sol joins reasoning-on Claude Opus 5 in stable-but-wrong, and Kimi K3, Muse-Glimmer-30B, and reasoning-off Claude Opus 5 stay correct on every wording.
Why these questions count as equivalentEach paraphrase keeps the presence-of-finding operator and the same finding in the same structure (tortuosity of the thoracic aorta), varying only syntax, scope wording, or lexical choice. The equivalence audit rubric treats these rewrite classes as clinically equivalent.
MedGemma-4B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: No
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5-mini
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: No
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Haiku 4.5
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5 (reasoning on)
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5 (reasoning off)
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: No
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Kimi K3
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: No
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Muse-Glimmer-30B
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: No
Is there imaging evidence of thoracic aortic tortuosity on this study?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Does the image show tortuosity of the thoracic aorta?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there focal or diffuse tortuosity of the thoracic aorta visible on this image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
On this image, is the thoracic aorta tortuous?
Syntactic restructuringNo Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Case 06 · Clinician-adjudicated expansion pairs (MIMIC-CXR), frontier models, August 2026
Right Lower Lobe Collapse
4 flipped answers3 of 3 models flip
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there atelectasis in the right lower lobe area?
Reference answer
Yes
Why this case mattersGround truth is yes, and all three models flip somewhere: MedGemma-4B loses the finding on both rephrasings, GPT-5.6 loses it when atelectasis becomes collapse, and Claude Opus 5 only finds it when the question names the right lower lobe. The newest frontier models show the same paraphrase instability as the open-weight fleet.
Why these questions count as equivalentBoth paraphrases are clinician-adjudicated as clinically equivalent: same finding (right lower lobe atelectasis), same presence operator, one lexical substitution and one specificity modulation.
MedGemma-4B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there collapse of the right lower lobe?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there atelectasis specifically in the right lower lobe?
Specificity modulationNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
gpt-5.6
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is there collapse of the right lower lobe?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there atelectasis specifically in the right lower lobe?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5
Wrong and unstable
Answer to the original question: No
Is there collapse of the right lower lobe?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there atelectasis specifically in the right lower lobe?
Specificity modulationYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Case 07 · Clinician-adjudicated expansion pairs (MIMIC-CXR), frontier models, August 2026
Generic Abnormality Screen
1 flipped answer1 of 3 models flip
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there evidence of any abnormalities in this image?
Reference answer
Yes
Why this case mattersThe scan is abnormal. GPT-5.6 says yes to 'abnormalities' but no to 'abnormal findings', a false negative from a trivial wording change. Claude Opus 5 answers yes throughout. MedGemma-4B answers no throughout: consistent, and consistently missing the abnormality. Stability is not the same as being right.
Why these questions count as equivalentBoth paraphrases are clinician-adjudicated as clinically equivalent: a generic abnormality screen with the same presence operator, one lexical substitution and one scope quantification.
MedGemma-4B
Consistent but wrong
Answer to the original question: No
Are there any abnormal findings visible on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there evidence of abnormalities anywhere in the image?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
gpt-5.6
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Are there any abnormal findings visible on this image?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there evidence of abnormalities anywhere in the image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Claude Opus 5
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: Yes
Are there any abnormal findings visible on this image?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there evidence of abnormalities anywhere in the image?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
Case 08 · PSF-Med binary-500 population (PadChest); Muse run locally (greedy, pinned revision f84ecc3a)
Aortic Elongation
6 flipped answers2 of 3 models flip
Illustrative pictogram, standing in for the study image
The radiograph is not shown
This case uses a MIMIC-CXR study. The PhysioNet licence for MIMIC-CXR prohibits redistributing images, so the radiograph is not published here. Anyone with credentialed access can obtain it from PhysioNet.
The question and the answers are below. The image never changes within a case; only the wording does.
Original question
Is there aortic elongation?
Reference answer
Yes
Why this case mattersGround truth is yes. Muse Glimmer 30B, the largest model here, answers yes on the original wording and no on all four equivalent rephrasings, losing the finding every time. MedGemma-4B starts wrong and flips twice. MedGemma-27B says yes throughout: the only model that is both correct and consistent. Scale alone did not buy consistency.
Why these questions count as equivalentAll four paraphrases keep the same presence operator and the same finding (aortic elongation), varying only lexical choice, syntax, scope wording, and specificity; the operator-changing negation variant was excluded from this display.
Muse-Glimmer-30B
Correct until rephrased
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is aortic elongation present?
Lexical substitutionNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Can aortic elongation be identified?
Syntactic restructuringNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there any aortic elongation?
Scope quantificationNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there elongation of the aorta?
Specificity modulationNo Flipped from the originalConflicts with the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
MedGemma-4B
Wrong and unstable
Answer to the original question: No
Is aortic elongation present?
Lexical substitutionNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Can aortic elongation be identified?
Syntactic restructuringYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any aortic elongation?
Scope quantificationNo Same as the originalConflicts with the reference answer
Is there elongation of the aorta?
Specificity modulationYes Flipped from the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
MedGemma-27B
Consistent and correct
Answer to the original question: Yes
Is aortic elongation present?
Lexical substitutionYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Can aortic elongation be identified?
Syntactic restructuringYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there any aortic elongation?
Scope quantificationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
Is there elongation of the aorta?
Specificity modulationYes Same as the originalMatches the reference answer
No paraphrase flipped this model's answer in this case.
You have just seen answers flip. This opens one pair and follows the answer position through all 33 layers. The colored paths show when two equivalent wordings begin leaning toward different answers; the layer control gives you an exact readout at any point. The amber marker is the causal transplant locus, which is not necessarily the first visible split. Open the expert view only when you want the complete prompt-token matrix.
The section above reads one pair. This one asks whether that split is a property of the model in general or of that pair alone. Take two versions of the same question, one the model answers correctly and one it does not, and copy the model's internal state from the first into the second at a single layer. If the answer changes, that layer is carrying the decision. Drag through the 34 layers of MedGemma-4B and watch where it happens, across 1,396 pairs at once.
Of 1,396 pairs flip when the state is swapped here
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Flip when an image token is swapped instead, at the same layer
The control: flips here would mean patching any position changes the answer.
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What this layer is doing
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The answer commits in a narrow band
Flip rate by transplant layer. The line is the layer you picked.
Median commit layer 16, 95% bootstrap interval [16, 16]. 71% of pairs commit within layers 15 to 17.
The same curve as a table
Layer
Answer-position transplant
Image-token control
The answer is not assembled gradually. Through layer 13 the transplant does almost nothing, under 0.2%. Then it goes 8.2% at layer 14, 35.2% at 15, 73.2% at 16, and 100% by 20. The image-token control never exceeds 0.07%, one pair of 1,396: the flips are specific to the answer position. That is what makes layer 16 the point where this model has decided.
Knowing where the answer commits does not help at inference, because you cannot open the model up on a live case. So: is there a signal you could actually read? The model produces a probability for yes and no on every question, and predictive entropy measures how close that distribution is to a coin flip. The claim in Chapter 7 is that this single number, from one forward pass, ranks both errors and paraphrase flips. Drag the threshold: everything at or below it is answered automatically, everything above is escalated to a person.
Stable and flipped questions by predictive entropy. The line is your threshold.
Answer stayed the same under paraphrase
Answer flipped under paraphrase
The same numbers as a table
Measure
At this threshold
If you answer everything
One forward pass ranks flip risk. Entropy separates flipped from stable questions well enough to score an area under the curve of 0.823 for flips and 0.862 for errors on this model, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect. Tightening the threshold buys accuracy on what remains.